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How to trade Nifty options using volatility and beta?

NIFTY Detailed Statistics

NIFTY- Positive Closing

  • No of times Nifty moved Less than 1% : 66.81%
  • No of times Nifty moved between 1% and 2% : 23.54%
  • No of times Nifty moved between 2% and 3% : 6.15%
  • No of times Nifty moved between 3% and 4% : 2.05%
  • No of times Nifty moved between 4% and 5% : 0.5%
  • No of times Nifty moved more than 5% : 0.96%
Total Positive Trading Session : 2392 OR 53.57%

NIFTY- Negative Closing

  • No of times Nifty moved Less than -1% : 66.67%
  • No of times Nifty moved between -1% and -2% : 21.51%
  • No of times Nifty moved between -2% and -3% : 6.84%
  • No of times Nifty moved between -3% and -4% : 2.74%
  • No of times Nifty moved between -4% and -5% : 1.12%
  • No of times Nifty moved more than -5% : 1.12%
Total Negative Trading Session : 2046 OR 45.82%

NIFTY- Doji Closing

  • No of times Nifty moved 0% (Doji) : 0.6%
Total Doji Trading Session : 27 OR 0.6%

NIFTY Daily Change Range

  • Probability that movement will be between -1% to 1% (Low Volatility) : 67% .
  • Probability that movement will be between -2% to 2% (Medium Volatility) : 22%
  • Probability that movement will be more than 2% either side (High Volatility) : 11%
Daily Trading Range helps predict probability of Intraday volatility

NIFTY Monthly Change Range

  • No of times Nifty moved between 00% and 05% in a month : 36.11% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between 05% and 10% in a month : 15.28% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between 10% and 15% in a month : 4.17% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between 15% and 20% in a month : 0.93% .
  • No of times Nifty moved more than 20% in a month : 0% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between 00% and -05% in a month : 30.09% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between -05% and -10% in a month : 8.33% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between -10% and -15% in a month : 2.78% .
  • No of times Nifty moved between -15% and -20% in a month : 1.39% .
  • No of times Nifty moved more than -20% in a month : 0.93% .
Monthly Trading Range helps predict probability of Expiry Options premium value

NIFTY vs Bank Nifty

  • No of times Nifty closed Positive and Bank Nifty closed Positive : 44.77% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Negative and Bank Nifty closed Positive : 7.64% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Negative and Bank Nifty closed Negative : 38.1% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Positive and Bank Nifty closed Negative : 8.78% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Doji 0% and Bank Nifty closed Doji 0% : 0.02% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Positive and Bank Nifty closed Doji 0% : 0.02% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Negative and Bank Nifty closed Doji 0% : 0.09% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Doji 0% and Bank Nifty closed Negative : 0.25% .
  • No of times Nifty closed Doji 0% and Bank Nifty closed Positive : 0.34% .
Nifty relationship with Bank Nifty is helps understand dependency on Index movement

NIFTY Options Trading Section

  • Stock has Low Daily Volatility..
  • Nifty has Low Monthly Volatility..
  • Nifty movement has Strong relationship with Bank Nifty movement..
Above information gives idea of Nifty characterristic based on data.

Above information is presented by researching last 15 years data from Nifty and Bank Nifty alike. The dependence of Nifty and Bank Nifty along with trading ranges will help Options traders both Buyers as well as Sellers get an idea of Nifty movement on daily and monthly time frames.

This data can be combined with Nifty performance on a given day or month based on historical data for prediction of movement on that day and month. These two data along with impact of any current events should provide an detailed insight into prediction or at least understand the nature of Index movement.

Along with above historical data information you can combine technical analysis in form of Gann Calculator . The website has online Nifty Gann calculator which can be used along with above mentioned data for information like Support and Resistance based on the calculator.